Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because, among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 6/2/23 were for an injection in the 115 to 116 Bcf range.

The total net injection implied flow came in above the final estimates, with 118 Bcf being put into storage, while the actual net change was below due to reclassification in South Central Nonsalt.

Storage is now 562 Bcf above last year, and 353 Bcf above the 5-year average, which is still within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 6/9/23 are calling for an injection in the 86 to 96 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started closer to the high in June last year. From there, prices swung up and down, first with a significant drop into July, followed by a large rally up until the start of September that established the new 52-week high, before another large drop into October. Future prices then continued to range above the 52-week average until the end of December when they dropped below the average. Prices have continued to fall since the start of the new year, and they have just established a new 52-low. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 35.9% from September 1st’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 19.8%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started below the 52-week average in June last year. From there, 2024 future prices began a long rally that continued until they established the new 52-week high in September. After establishing the new high, future prices continued to move down while ranging above the average until the end of December. Prices crashed down at the start of the new year to a low point at the beginning of February, where they have continued to range close to while establishing a 52-week low at the start of June. Currently, Algonquin prices are down about 48.9% from September 15th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 26.6.%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2024 future prices started closer to the 52-week low in June last year. From there, 2024 future prices began a long rally up that continued until they established the new 52-week high at the end of August. Since then, future prices moved down in two big drops that had prices establish a new 52-week low in February. After that there was a small rally, however, prices have now moved back close to the 52-week low. Currently, ISO-NE prices are down about 36% from August 31st’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 16.3%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in June last year. From there, prices swung up and down, first with a significant drop at the start of July, followed by a large rally up until the start of September that established the new 52-week high. After that, future prices continued to range above the 52-week average until the end of last year. Since then, prices have continued to fall, and they have recently established the new 52-week low, which prices are still close to now. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 37% from September 1st’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 22.7%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2024 future prices started around the 52-week average in June last year. From there, future prices rallied until they established a high point later in June. Following that, prices swung up and down, first with a significant drop at the start of July, followed by a large rally up into September, that was followed by another drop at the start of November. Next future prices spiked sharply to establish the new 52-week high later in November. After establishing the new high, future prices crashed down until they established the new 52-week low in late February. Since then, prices ranged a little higher for several months before now dropping back down to be close to the 52-week low. Currently, PJM prices are down about 29.8% from November 25th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 16.6%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in June last year. From there, future prices swung up and down, first with a significant drop into the start of July, followed by a larger rally up until the start of September that established the new 52-week high. Since establishing the new high, future prices crashed down in two drops that recently established the new 52-week low in April, which prices are just slightly above now. Currently HSC prices are down about 37.8% from September 1st’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 18.7%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2024 future prices started above the 52-week average in June last year. From there, future prices began a short rally that hit a high point later in June. Following that, future prices swung up and down, first with a significant drop into July, followed by a larger rally that established the new 52-week high at the start of September. Next future prices had a large drop to be around the 52-week average in October, where prices continued to range around the average until the end of December. Since then, future prices crashed down to establish the new 52-week low in February, which was followed by a short rally, which was then followed by another drop that now has prices close to the 52-week low. Currently, Houston prices are down about 31.5% from September 5th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 14%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.