Energy Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.  Additionally, you can get these updates sent to your inbox weekly by signing up here.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because, among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 8/16/24 were for an injection in the 25 to 26 Bcf range.

The total net injection came in above the final estimates, with 35 Bcf being put into storage.

Storage is now 221 Bcf above last year, and 369 Bcf above the 5-year average, which is within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 8/23/24 are calling for an injection in the 32 to 42 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in August last year, where prices continued to range until October. From there, future prices had a small rally that established the new 52-week high at the start of November. Following that, future prices started a huge crash that cratered down closer to the 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing down to be close to the 52-week low in mid-February. After that, future prices rallied up to be closer to the 52-week average, where prices continued to range until the start of June, when prices rallied above the 52-week average. Recently, future prices crashed down further to establish the new 52-week low at the start of August, which prices are a little above now. Currently, Henry Hub prices are down about 21% from November 3rd’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 9%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of the Calendar Year 2025 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started close to the 52-week high in August last year. From there, future prices slowly increased into the beginning of October until the new 52-week high was established. Following that, future prices started a large crash that continued down until establishing the new 52-week low in late February. Next, future prices moved up to range mostly closer to the 52-week average until the start of July. Recently, prices have moved a little lower. Currently, Algonquin prices are down about 22% from October 13th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 7.8%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in August last year. From there, future prices moved up until establishing the new 52-week high in mid-September. Following that, future prices started a gradual decline until December, when prices cratered down to a low point, closer to the 52-week low. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing again to establish the new 52-week low in mid-February. After that, future prices continued to rally up until hitting a high point above the 52-week average in July. Recently, futures prices have dropped a little, and they are now just below the 52-week average. Currently, ISO-NE prices are down about 13.1% from September 14th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 1.8%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in August last year. From there, future prices rallied up until establishing the new 52-week high at the start of November. Following that, future prices had a huge crash that continued down until hitting a low point closer to the 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing again to be near the 52-week low in mid-February. After that, future prices rallied up to start ranging closer to the 52-week average until the end of June. Recently, future prices crashed down further to establish the new 52-week low at the start of August, which prices are a little above now. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 23.4% from November 3rd’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 10.2%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2025Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started below the 52-week average in August last year. From there, future prices rallied up to a high point, closer to the 52-week high by the start of November. Following that, future prices crashed down until establishing the new 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had another series of rallies and crashes before rallying up further in May to establish the new 52-week high. Since then, future prices have been ranging down and are now closer to the midpoint of the 52-week low and average. Currently, PJM prices are down about 11.1% from May 20th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 4.1%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in August last year, where prices continued to range until October. Following that, future prices had a small rally that established the new 52-week high at the start of November. Next, future prices cratered down to hit a low point below the 52-week average in December. After that, future prices had a small rally before dropping down to be closer to the 52-week low in mid-February. Then, future prices moved up a little to start mostly ranging closer to the 52-week average until the start of June. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing down to establish the new 52-week low at the start of August, which prices are just above now. Currently, HSC prices are down about 25.7% from November 3rd’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 12.9%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started near the 52-week low in August last year. From there, future prices started a gradual rally that hit a high point at the end of November near the 52-week average. Following that, future prices had a series of rallies and crashes that ranged between the 52-week average and low. Next, future prices started a long rally further up that continued until establishing the new 52-week high at the start of June. Recently, future prices have been ranging down from the high, and they are now just above the 52-week average. Currently, Houston prices are down about 13.4% from June 5th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 0.7%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.