Energy Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.  Additionally, you can get these updates sent to your inbox weekly by signing up here.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because, among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for the week ending 3/8/24 were for a withdrawal in the 2 to 6 Bcf range.

The total net withdrawal came in above the final estimates, with 9 Bcf being taken out of storage.

Storage is now 336 Bcf above last year, and 629 Bcf above the 5-year average, which is still above the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for the week ending 3/15/24 are calling for a withdrawal of 2 to injection of 8 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started at the 52-week high in March last year, and prices continued to range closer to through the end of April. From there, future prices gradually declined into June near the 52-week average, where prices continued to range close to until October. After that, there was a small rally into the start of November before prices started a large crash that cratered down close to the 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing again to establish the new 52-week low in mid-February. Recently future prices have rallied up a little from the low. Currently, Henry Hub prices are down about 20% from March 14th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 11.9%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of the Calendar Year 2025 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started above the 52-week average in March last year. From there, future prices rallied up until establishing the 52-week high in late April. Next, future prices dropped off to range closer to the 52-week average through October. After that, future prices started a large crash that continued down until establishing the new 52-week low in late February, when prices are just above now. Currently, Algonquin prices are down about 31.2% from April 20th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 22.3%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started below the 52-week average in March last year. From there, future prices began a long gradual rally that continued until establishing the new 52-week high in mid-September. Following that, future prices started a gradual decline until December, when prices cratered down to a low point, closer to the 52-week low. Next, future prices had a small rally, before crashing again to establish the new 52-week low in mid-February. Recently future prices have moved up a little from the low. Currently, ISO-NE prices are down about 20.7% from September 14th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 12.9%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started near the 52-high in March last year, which was then established in late April. From there, future prices started a gradual decline that continued into September, near the 52-week average. Following that, future prices started to range a little higher into November, when a huge crash began that continued down until hitting a low point near the 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing again to establish the new 52-week low in mid-February. Recently future prices have moved up a little from the low. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 32.2% from April 24th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 15.9%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2025Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started above the 52-week average in March last year. From there, future prices rallied up to establish a new 52-week high in late April. Following that, future prices started another crash that continued down until hitting a low point closer to the 52-week low by the start of August. Next, future prices began a smaller rally that pushed prices to a high point a little above the 52-week average by the start of November. After that, future prices began another crash that continued down until establishing the new 52-week low in December, before rallying right back up to be a little above the 52-week average. Recently future prices crashed quickly and rallied again to now be closer to the 52-week average. Currently, PJM prices are down about 13.1% from April 24th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 2.7%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started near the 52-week high in March last year, which was then established in late April. From there, future prices dropped down to range closer to the 52-week average into October. Following that, future prices had a small rally before starting a huge crash in November that hit a low point closer to the 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing again to establish the new 52-week low in mid-February. Recently future prices have moved up a little from the low. Currently, HSC prices are down about 21.5% from April 24th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 13.6%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started near the 52-week average in March last year. After a quick rally into late March, future prices crashed down until establishing the new 52-week low at the start of May. From there, future prices started a long gradual rally that hit a high point at the end of November. Following that, future prices had a series of rallies and crashes that have ranged mostly between the 52-week high and average. Recently future prices have rallied higher to establish the new 52-week high, which prices are just below now. Currently, Houston prices are down about 0.9% from March 5th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 10.8%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.