Energy Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.  Additionally, you can get these updates sent to your inbox weekly by signing up here.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because, among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 10/20/23 were for an injection in the 79 to 80 Bcf range.

The total net injection came in below the final estimates, with 74 Bcf being put into storage.

Storage is now 313 Bcf above last year, and 183 Bcf above the 5-year average, which is still within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 10/27/23 are calling for an injection in the 76 to 96 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started close to the 52-week high in October last year, which was then established in late November. From there, prices crashed down bringing prices close to the 52-week low by February. Since then, besides a short spike in March, future prices have continued to range below the 52-week average, with the new 52-week low recently being established at the start of October, when prices are a little above now. Currently, Henry Hub prices are down about 27.4% from November 24th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 7.8%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of the Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in October last year, which was then established in December. After establishing the new high, prices cratered to a low point by the beginning of February. Since then, prices have gradually moved lower while mostly ranging below the 52-week average, with the new 52-week low recently being established in October, which prices are just above now. Currently, Algonquin prices are down about 47.2% from December 15th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 19%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2024 future prices started close to the 52-week high in October last year, which was then established at the end of December. From there, future prices cratered down to hit a low point by February. After that, there was a small rally, before prices moved back down to continue to range below the 52-week average. Recently prices dropped down further to establish the new 52-week low, which prices are just above now. Currently, ISO-NE prices are down about 28% from December 29th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 10.9%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started closer to the 52-week high in October last year, which was then established at the start of December. After establishing the new high, prices crashed down to a low point in February. From there, future prices continued to gradually decline until establishing the new 52-week low at the start of August, which prices are still close to now. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 39.3% from December 1st’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 16.1%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2024 future prices started above the 52-week average in October last year. From there, future prices rallied up to establish the new 52-week high at the end of November. After establishing the new high, future prices crashed down to a low point by late February. Next, prices rallied a bit to range a little higher for several months before dropping back down to establish the new 52-week low at the start of August. Since then, future prices have been gradually moving up and are now closer to the 52-week average. Currently, PJM prices are down about 26.6% from November 25th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 5%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2024 future prices started close to the 52-week high in October last year, which was then established at the end of November. From there, future prices cratered down to a low point by February. Next, future prices had a short rally before crashing down further to establish the new 52-week low in April. Since then, future prices have continued to range below the 52-week average, and now they are a little closer to the 52-week low. Currently, HSC prices are down about 25.4% from October 24th’s 52-week high, which is below the average by around 5.8%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2024 future prices started above the 52-week average in October last year. From there, future prices ranged a little higher until December when prices started a large crash that continued down until establishing the new 52-week low at the start of February. Next, future prices rallied to range a little higher for several weeks before dropping back down to be close to the 52-week low in April. Following that, future prices started a huge rally that continued to move up until recently establishing the new 52-week high at the end of September, which prices are still close to now. Currently, Houston prices are down about 3.8% from September 28th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 13.6%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.