Energy Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.  Additionally, you can get these updates sent to your inbox weekly by signing up here.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because, among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

					Historical Comparisons
	Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf)				Year ago (10/18/23)		5-year average (2019-2023)
Region	10/18/24	10/11/24	net change	implied flow	Bcf	% change	Bcf	% change
East	901	893	8	8	905	-0.4	884	1.9
Midwest	1,088	1,067	21	21	1,068	1.9	1,056	3.0
Mountain	291	287	4	4	251	15.9	223	30.5
Pacific	300	293	7	7	282	6.4	281	6.8
South Central	1,205	1,166	39	39	1,173	2.7	1,174	2.6
Salt	314	293	21	21	295	6.4	298	5.4
Nonsalt	891	872	19	19	879	1.4	876	1.7
Total	3,785	3,705	80	80	3,679	2.9	3,618	4.6

 

Final estimates for week ending 10/18/24 were for an injection in the 68 to 69 Bcf range.

The total net injection came in well above the final estimates, with 80 Bcf being put into storage.

Storage is now 106 Bcf above last year, and 167 Bcf above the 5-year average, which is within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 10/25/24 are calling for an injection in the 76 to 86 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started close to the 52-week high in October last year. From there, future prices had a small rally, establishing a new 52-week high at the start of November. Following that, future prices experienced a significant crash, dropping below the 52-week average in December. Next, future prices mostly ranged near the 52-week average until the start of June, when prices rallied slightly above the 52-week average. After that, future prices crashed again, nearing the low by the start of August. Since then, future prices have continued to range below the 52-week average, recently moving further down to establish a new 52-week low, which prices are just above now. Currently, Henry Hub prices are down about 24.3% from the 52-week high on November 3rd, which is around 9.5% below the average.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of the Calendar Year 2025 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started at the 52-week high in October last year. From there, future prices experienced a large crash, continuing down until nearing the 52-week low in late February. Following that, future prices moved up to range mostly near the 52-week average until the start of July. Since then, future prices have continued to range down, recently establishing a new 52-week low, which prices are just above now. Currently, Algonquin prices are down about 29.2% from the 52-week high on October 31st, which is around 11.9% below the average.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started at the 52-week high in October last year. From there, future prices gradually declined until December, when prices cratered to a low point, closer to the 52-week low. Following that, future prices had a small rally before crashing again to establish a new 52-week low in mid-February. Next, future prices continued to rally until hitting a high point above the 52-week average in July. Since then, future prices have continued to range down and are now closer to the 52-week low. Currently, ISO-NE prices are down about 17.4% from the 52-week high on October 27th, which is around 7.2% below the average.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started close to the 52-week high in October last year. From there, future prices moved up until establishing a new 52-week high at the start of November. Following that, future prices experienced a significant crash, continuing down until hitting a low point below the 52-week average in December. Next, future prices had a small rally before crashing again, nearing the 52-week low in mid-February. After that, future prices rallied to start ranging closer to the 52-week average until the start of July. Then, future prices moved down to range mostly near the 52-week low until mid-September. Since then, future prices first rallied to be close to the 52-week average before crashing down to recently establish a new 52-week low, which prices are just above now. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 26.1% from the 52-week high on November 3rd, which is around 9.7% below the average.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2025Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started above the 52-week average in October last year. From there, future prices moved up slightly to be closer to the 52-week high by the start of November. Following that, future prices crashed down until establishing a new 52-week low in December. Next, future prices had a series of large rallies and crashes before rallying further in May to establish a new 52-week high. After that, future prices continued to range down until hitting a low point near the 52-week low in mid-September. Recently, future prices first rallied slightly before moving down again to be closer to the 52-week low. Currently, PJM prices are down about 12.2% from the 52-week high on May 20th, which is around 4.6% below the average.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 future prices started close to the 52-week high in October last year. From there, future prices moved up to establish a new 52-week high at the start of November. Following that, future prices cratered to a low point just below the 52-week average in December. Next, future prices continued to mostly range near the 52-week average until the start of July. Since then, future prices have continued to range down, recently establishing a new 52-week low, which prices are just above now. Currently, HSC prices are down about 30.7% from the 52-week high on November 3rd, which is around 14.5% below the average.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2025 future prices started below the 52-week average in October last year. From there, future prices had a series of small rallies and crashes, ranging between the 52-week average and 52-week low until February. In mid-February, future prices started a significant rally, continuing until establishing a new 52-week high at the start of June. Following that, future prices started an even larger crash, continuing until establishing a new 52-week low at the start of September. Recently, future prices first rallied back up to be close to the 52-week average before crashing down again to be close to the 52-week low. Currently, Houston prices are down about 24.7% from the 52-week high on June 5th, which is around 12.3% below the average.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2025 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2025 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ERCOT Load Zone ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 together

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.