Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 9/23/22 were for an injection in the 96 to 101 Bcf range.

The total net injection came in just above the final estimates, with 103 Bcf being put into storage.

Storage is now 180 Bcf lower than last year, and 306 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is still within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 9/30/22 are calling for an injection in the 112 to 122 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started near the 52-week low in September last year. From there, 2023 future prices continued to range near the low until the end of last year, when the 52-week low was established. After that, prices had a long rally up that continued until they established the new 52-week high in June. Since then, prices have made big swings up and down, first with a significant drop into July, followed by a large rally ending at the start of September, and now another large drop to end the month. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 19.1% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 17.3%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started near the 52-week low in September last year, that was then established at the start of December last year. From there, 2023 future prices began a long rally up that continued until they established the new 52-week high at the end of August. Over the past month prices have had a significant drop from the new high. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 22% from August 26th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 30.7%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in September last year. From there, 2023 future prices began a long rally higher until hitting a high point at the end of July. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a drop in August, followed by a rally back up to establish the new 52-week high in September, before just dropping off again. Currently ISO-NE prices are down about 14.5% from September 16th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 35.1%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started near the 52-week low in September last year, that was then established at the end of December last year. From there, prices began a long rally higher that continued until a high point at the start of June. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop into the start of July, followed by a larger rally up that established the new 52-week high at the start of September, before just having another large drop off. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down about 21.4% from September 1st’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 18.9%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in September last year. From there, future prices began a long rally higher that continued until they established the new 52-week high in May. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop that continued into the start of July, followed by a large rally up into September, before just dropping off a little again. Currently PJM prices are down about 11.5% from May 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 28.9%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started near the 52-week low in September last year. From there, 2023 future prices continued to range near the low until the end of last year, when the 52-week low was established. Next, prices began a long rally higher until they established the new 52-week high in June. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop into the start of July, followed by a large rally up until the start of September, before moving back down in another large drop. Currently HSC prices are down about 21% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 15%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in September last year. From, there future prices continued to range near the low through the end of last year. Next, future prices began a long rally higher in January that continued until they hit a high point in June. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop into July, followed by a larger rally up that established the new 52-week high at the end of August, before just dropping off again. Currently Houston prices are down about 15.9% from August 31st’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 25.6%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.