Market Update – May 6, 2021

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as the main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there is more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the long-term outlooks, we compare what the market was expecting to be each week (injection or withdrawal number) verse what actually took place, this will either push prices up or down respectively.

Estimates for week ending 4/30/21 started as an injection in the 27 to 31 Bcf range and then moved up to an injection in the 58 to 65 Bcf range.

 

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 5/7/21 are calling for an INJECTION in the 77 to 81 Bcf range.
Storage is now 345 Bcf lower than last year, and 61 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-year historical range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in May last year. From there prices declined thru the spring until the start of summer when future prices hit the new 52-week low. After hitting the new low, future prices then rallied for the rest of the summer and into the fall, all the way up to hit the new 52-week high at the end of October. Since then, future 2022 prices dropped off considerably to range around the 52-week average, although they have now pushed higher to be a little closer to the 52-week high. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 1.8% from last October’s 52-week high, which is above the average by about 5.6%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in May last year. Since then, Algonquin 2022 future prices first came off a little before recovering thru the summer, and then rallying into the fall, pushing further above the average, up to a high point at the end of October. After hitting a high point in October, prices dropped off quickly back to the 52-week average, and then there was a short-lived price crash at the end of last year that established the new 52-week low. However, future prices recovered quickly and they have just rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high. Currently Algonquin prices are at the 52-week high, which is above the average by around 10.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in May last year. From there prices continued to decline into late spring, when prices established the new 52-week low. Since hitting the new low, future prices rallied thru the summer and into the fall, rallying up to a high point at the end of October. Prices then dropped off at the start of November and kept falling to move below the 52-week average to close out the year. However, prices have recovered quickly, rallying all the way up to establish the new 52-week high, which prices are at now. Currently ISO-NE prices are at the 52-week high, which is above the average by around 11.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in May last year. From there future prices continued to decline until the start of summer, when the new 52-week low was established. Next, TETCO-M3 2022 future prices rallied off the lows, pushed above the average, and spiked all the way up to establish the new 52-week high by the end of October. Since then, future prices have dropped off to range mostly around the 52-week average, although prices are pushing higher now. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down around 3.8% from last October’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 2.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week average in May last year. From there future prices continued to decline until the end of May, when the new 52-week low was established. Next, prices rallied off the lows, pushed above the average, and spiked all the way up to establish the new 52-week high near the end of November. Since then, prices first dropped off to range closer to the 52-week average, although prices have recently rallied and they are now a little closer to the 52-week high. Currently PJM prices are down around 1.4% from last November’s 52-week high, which is above the average by about 3.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.