Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 7/22/22 were for an injection in the 17 to 19 Bcf range.

The total net injection came in below the final estimates, with only 15 Bcf being put into storage.

Storage is now 293 Bcf lower than last year, and 345 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is still within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 7/29/22 are calling for an injection in the 24 to 34 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in July last year. From there, 2023 future prices started a rally that continued until hitting a high point in November. Next, future prices dropped off until the end of last year. After that, prices had a long rally that continued until they established the new 52-week high in June. However, prices have just had a significant drop followed by a large rebound. Currently, Henry Hub prices are down about 13.8% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 40.2%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in July last year. From there, 2023 future prices began a climb that rallied up to a high point in December. Next, future prices had a quick drop at the end of last year. Since then, prices have continued to rally higher, and they have just established a new 52-week high. Currently, Algonquin prices are at the 52-week high, which is above the average by around 86.5%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started near the 52-week low in July last year, which was then established at the beginning of August. From there, 2023 future prices began a climb that rallied up to a high point in October. Next, future prices dropped off a bit until last December. Since then, prices have continued to rally higher, and they have just established a new 52-week high. Currently, ISO-NE prices are at the 52-week high, which is above the average by around 73.5%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in July last year. From there, future prices began a rally that continued until hitting a high point in December. Next, future prices dropped off a little until the end of last year. Since then, prices began a long rally higher that continued until establishing the new 52-week high in June. However, prices have just had a significant drop followed by a large rebound. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 10.8% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 49.7%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in July last year. From there, future prices began a rally that continued until hitting a high point in November. Next, future prices dropped off a little until the start of December. Since then, prices began a long rally higher until they established the new 52-week high in May. However, prices have just had a significant drop followed by a moderate rebound. Currently, PJM prices are down about 15% from May 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 42.7%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in July last year. From there, 2023 future prices started a rally that continued until hitting a high point at the end of October. Next, future prices dropped off to range a little lower until the end of last year. Since then, prices began a long rally higher until they established the new 52-week high in June. However, prices have just had a significant drop followed by a large rebound. Currently, HSC prices are down about 14.2% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 39.8%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started near the 52-week low in July last year, which was then established last August. Next, future prices began a rally that continued until hitting a high point at the end of October. From there, future prices dropped off to range a little lower until the end of last year. Since then, prices began a long rally higher until they established the new 52-week high in June. However, prices have just had a significant drop followed by a moderate rebound. Currently, Houston prices are down about 12.2% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 44.3%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.