Market Update – July 15, 2021

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as the main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there is more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the long-term outlooks, we compare what the market was expecting to be each week (injection or withdrawal number) verse what actually took place, this will either push prices up or down respectively.

Estimates for the week ending 7/9/21 were for an injection in the 48 to 50 Bcf range.   

Early market estimates for the storage report for the week ending 7/16/21 are calling for an INJECTION in the 44 to 54 Bcf range.

Storage is now 453 Bcf lower than last year, and 126 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-year historical range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started at the 52-week low in July last year. From there, future prices rallied for the rest of the summer and into the fall, up to a high point by the end of October. Next, future 2022 prices dropped off to a range mostly below the 52-week average for several months. However, since the start of April future prices have been rising and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, Henry Hub prices are down about 0.7% from July 12th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 18.3%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in July last year. From there, Algonquin 2022 future recovered thru the summer to range closer to the 52-week average. Future prices then rallied a bit into the fall, pushing a little above the average for the end of October. Next, prices dropped off quickly to range below the 52-week average, until prices fell even further in a short-lived price crash at the end of last year that established the new 52-week low. Next, 2022 future prices recovered quickly, and they were back to ranging closer to the 52-week average for several months. However, since the start of April future prices have been rising and they have recently rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, Algonquin prices are down about 3.2% from July 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 25.8%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started near the 52-week low in July last year. From there 2022 future prices slowly recovered thru the start of summer, before starting to rally at the end of the summer which continued into the fall, hitting a high point by the end of October. Future prices then dropped off at the start of November and kept falling until establishing the new 52-week low in December. However, since the start of the new year prices have been steadily increasing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, ISO-NE prices are down about 2.3% from July 5th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 23.4%.

The chart below shows the price movement of the Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started near the 52-week low in July last year. From there, TETCO-M3 2022 future prices rallied off the lows and pushed above the average, hitting a higher point by the end of October. Since then, future prices dropped off to range mostly below the 52-week average for several months, before dropping further to establish the new 52-week low at the start of April. However, since establishing the new low in April, future prices have been climbing, and they have just rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, TETCO-M3 prices are down about 0.9% from July 12th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 18.1%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started near the 52-week low in July last year, which was then established about a week later. After hitting the new low, prices rallied thru the summer and into the fall, hitting a high point near the end of November. Since then, prices dropped off to a range mostly below the 52-week average for several months. However, since the start of April future prices have been climbing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, PJM prices are down about 0.8% from July 2nd’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 13.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started at the 52-low in July last year. Then for the rest of summer and into the fall future prices recovered and rallied up to hit a higher point by the end of October. Next, HSC 2022 future prices dropped off to range mostly below the 52-week average until the end of last year. Future prices then started off the new year with a rally, before dropping off again to range a little lower for a few months. However, since the end of March future prices have been climbing, and they have just rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, HSC prices are down about 0.8% from July 12th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 19.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ERCOT Houston

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in July last year. From there future prices increased a little to range closer to the 52-week average until last November. Next, future prices crashed down to establish the new 52-week low at the end of last year. However, since the start of this year future prices have been climbing, and they have just rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently, Houston prices are down about 0.4% from July 12th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 35.4%.

The chart below shows the price movement of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.