Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 12/3/21 were for a withdrawal in the 56 to 57 Bcf range.

The total net withdrawal came in just above the final estimates, with 59 Bcf being taken out of storage.

Storage is now 356 Bcf lower than last year, and 90 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is still well within the 5-year historical range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in January last year, which was established several days later. From there, 2023 future prices first started to recover slowly, and then since the start of April future prices have been climbing, recently rallying all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in November. However, since hitting the new high, future prices have been ranging a little closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 5.6% from November 26th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 17.2%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in January last year, which was established a little over a week later. After establishing the new low, 2023 future prices recovered just slightly to range a little higher for several months. Then, since the start of April, future prices have been climbing and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in December. However, since hitting the new high, future prices dropped off and have been ranging around the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 20.5% from December 21st’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 42.9%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in January last year, which was established a little over two weeks later. From there, 2023 future prices recovered just slightly to range a little higher for several months. Then, since the start of April, future prices have been climbing and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high at the end of December. Since then, prices have dropped off a little, but are still closer to the 52-week high. Currently ISO-NE prices are down about 6.6% from December 24th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 39.5%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in January last year. From there, 2023 future prices continued to decline for several months until establishing the new 52-week low at the end of March. Then, since establishing the new low, future prices have been climbing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in December. However, since hitting the new high, future prices have been ranging a little closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down about 10.1% from December 13th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 22.6%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started closer to the 52-week low in January last year. From there, 2023 future prices continued to decline for several months until establishing the new 52-week low in March. Then, since establishing the new low, future prices have been climbing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high at the end of December. Since then, prices have dropped off a little, but are still closer to the 52-week high. Currently PJM prices are down about 3.9% from December 23rd’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 27.2%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in January last year. From there, 2023 future prices first started to recover slowly, and then since the start of April future prices have been climbing, recently rallying all the way up to establish the new 52-week high at the end of October. However, since hitting the new high, future prices have been ranging a little closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently HSC prices are down about 5.7% from October 25th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 16.9%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started closer to the 52-week low in January last year. From there 2023 future prices continued to decline until establishing the new 52-week low at the start of February. Then, since establishing the new low, future prices have been climbing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high at the end of October. Since then, prices have dropped off a little, to range slightly closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently Houston prices are down about 6.9% from October 27th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 15.8%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.