Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as the main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there is more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the long-term outlooks, we compare what the market was expecting to be each week (injection or withdrawal number) verse what actually took place, this will either push prices up or down respectively.

Final estimates for week ending 12/3/21 were for a withdrawal in the 56 to 57 Bcf range.

The total net withdrawal came in just above the final estimates, with 59 Bcf being taken out of storage.

Storage is now 356 Bcf lower than last year, and 90 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-year historical range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there, 2022 future prices decreased further until establishing the new 52-week low at the end of last year. At the beginning of this year future prices first started to recover slowly, and then since the start of April future prices have been climbing, recently rallying all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the 52-week average. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 19.9% from October 5th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 14.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there, 2022 future prices declined further until establishing the new 52-week low at the end of last year. After establishing the new low, 2022 future prices recovered a bit to range a little higher for several months. Then, since the start of April, future prices have been climbing and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 20% from October 5th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 33.7%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there, 2022 future prices dropped off further for several days until establishing the new 52-week low. Then, since the start of the new year, future prices began to steadily increase before starting a steep climb in April that has recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently ISO-NE prices are down about 18.2% from October 7th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 31.6%.

The chart below shows the price movement of the Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there, future prices declined for several months until establishing the new 52-week low at the start of April. Then, since establishing the new low in April, future prices have been climbing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the 52-week average. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down about 24.7% from October 25th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 14%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there, 2022 future prices dropped off further for several days until establishing the new 52-week low. Next, 2022 future prices first recovered a little to range closer to the 52-week low for several months, before prices started to climb in April, which continued until recently establishing the new 52-week high in October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the midpoint between the 52-week high and 52-week average. Currently PJM prices are down about 17.1% from October 27th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 25%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there, HSC 2022 future prices continued to decline until establishing the new 52-week low at the end of last year. Future prices then recovered slightly to range closer to the 52-week low for a few months. Then, since the end of March, future prices began to climb until they recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the 52-week average. Currently HSC prices are down about 20.9% from October 5th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 14.2%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started close to the 52-week low in December last year. From there 2022 future prices continued to decline until establishing the new 52-week low at the end of last year. Then, since the start of this year future prices have been climbing, and they have recently rallied all the way up to establish the new 52-week high in October. However, since continuing to range near the high for a while, future prices have just dropped off to be closer to the 52-week average. Currently Houston prices are down about 20.3% from October 27th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 15%.

The chart below shows the price movement of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.