Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because, among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 12/9/22 were for a withdrawal in the 51 to 54 Bcf range.

The total net withdrawal was just below the final estimates, with 50 Bcf being taken out of storage.

Storage is now 18 Bcf lower than last year, and 15 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is still within the 5-year historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 12/16/22 are calling for a withdrawal in the 70 to 80 Bcf range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in December last year. From there, future prices began a long rally up that continued until they established the new 52-week high in June. Since then, prices have made big swings up and down, first with a significant drop into July, followed by a large rally up until the start of September, before another large drop back to the 52-week average. Most recently there was a smaller rally, then drop, and then rally again that now has prices a little above the 52-week average. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 18.8% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 8.5%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in December last year. From there, 2023 future prices began a long rally up that continued until they established the new 52-week high at the end of August. Next, future prices significantly dropped off to the 52-week average, before recently rallying back up and then dropping again. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 20.6% from August 26th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 17.2%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in December last year. From there, 2023 future prices began a long rally up until hitting a high point at the end of July. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a drop in August, followed by a rally back up to establish the new 52-week high in September. Next, prices dropped off to the 52-week average, and most recently prices rallied back up before coming off slightly to be a little closer to the 52-week average. Currently ISO-NE prices are down about 19.4% from September 16th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 12.3%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week in December last year. From there, future prices began a long rally up that continued until hitting a high point at the start of June. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop into the start of July, followed by a larger rally up that established the new 52-week high at the start of September. Next, prices dropped off again to the 52-week average. Most recently prices had a smaller rally, then drop, and then rally again that has future prices closer to the midpoint between the 52-week average and 52-week high. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down about 16.1% from September 1st’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 15.6%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in December last year. From there, future prices began a long rally up that continued until they established the new 52-week high in May. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop that continued into the start of July, followed by a large rally up into September. Next, prices dropped off again to the 52-week average. Most recently prices had a smaller rally and drop that has future prices closer to the 52-week average. Currently PJM prices are down about 20.8% from May 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 3.6%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in December last year. From there, future prices began a long rally up until they established the new 52-week high in June. Since then, prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop into the start of July, followed by a large rally up until the start of September. Next, prices dropped off again to the 52-week average. Most recently prices had a smaller rally, then drop, and then rally again that has future prices a little above the 52-week average. Currently HSC prices are down about 22.5% from June 9th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 4.9%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in December last year. From there, future prices began a long rally up that continued until they hit a high point in June. Since then, future prices have swung up and down, first with a significant drop into July, followed by a larger rally up that established the new 52-week high at the end of August. Next, prices dropped off again to the 52-week average. Most recently prices had a small rally, then drop and then rally again that has future prices a little above the 52-week average. Currently Houston prices are down about 22.9% from August 31st’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 6.3%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs, you can see the minimum, maximum, and average prices of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.