Market Update

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made.

Final estimates for week ending 2/18/22 were for a withdrawal in the 123 to 126 Bcf range​

The total net withdrawal came in above the final estimates, with 129 Bcf being taken out of storage.​

Storage is now 209 Bcf lower than last year, and 214 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is still well within the 5-year historical range.​

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in April last year. From there, 2023 future prices started a rally that continued until hitting a high point in November. Next, future prices dropped off towards the 52-week average until the end of last year. Since then, prices have rallied up again to recently establish the new 52-week high, which after a quick drop, prices are still closer to now. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 9% from April 18th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 48.8%.

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at the basis between Henry Hub, TETCO-M3 and Algonquin. Typically, the further from the Henry Hub you are the more the basis cost is. Notice it was flat on the left at the beginning of the pandemic and has started to widen over the last 6 months due to supply concerns.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in April last year. From there, 2023 future prices began a climb that rallied up to a high point in December. Next, future prices had a quick drop back towards the 52-week average until the end of last year. Since then, prices have rallied up again to recently establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 4.5% from April 18th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 67.4%.

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Algonquin Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Algonquin Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in April last year. From there, future prices began a rally that has continued with short pauses and drops along the way until now. The long rally has recently established the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently ISO-NE prices are down about 6.9% from April 20th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 54.7%.

ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at ISO-NE Internal Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in April last year, that was then established in May. From there, future prices began a rally that continued until hitting a high point in December. Next, future prices dropped off a little until the end of last year. Since then, prices have rallied up again to recently establish the new 52-week high, which after a quick drop, prices are still closer to now. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down about 6.7% from April 18th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 62.6%.

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2023Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at TETCO-M3 Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in April last year, that was then established in May. From there, future prices began a rally that continued until hitting a high point in November. Next, future prices dropped off a little until the start of December. Since then, prices have rallied up again to recently establish the new the 52-week high, which prices are little below now. Currently PJM prices are down about 11.2% from April 20th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 64.4%.

PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 future prices started at the 52-week low in April last year. From there, 2023 future prices started a rally that continued until hitting a high point at the end of October. Next, future prices dropped off to range a little lower until the end of last year. Since then, prices have rallied up again to recently establish the new 52-week high, which after a quick drop, prices are still closer to now. Currently HSC prices are down about 8.6% from April 18th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 47.7%.

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/Therm)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Naural Gas over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Wholesale Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

ERCOT Houston 

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Real-Time Calendar Year 2023
ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2023 future prices started close to the 52-week low in April last year, that was then established in May. Next, future prices began a rally that continued until hitting a high point at the end of October. From there, future prices dropped off to range a little lower until the end of last year. Since then, prices have rallied up again to recently establish the new 52-week high, which prices are a little below now. Currently Houston prices are down about 8.9% from April 18th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 48.9%.

ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Calendar Year 2023 Week to Week Fluctuation ($/kWh)

The graphs above show the price movement of Calendar Year 2023 ERCOT Houston Load Zone ATC RT Wholesale Electricity over various periods of time. The price of the calendar year is shown on the left y-axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom x-axis. On the 52-week and short-term graphs you can see the minimum, maximum and average price of the past 52 weeks indicated by the gray lines.

The graph above takes a look at PJM Western Hub ATC DA Wholesale Electricity Calendar Years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 together.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.