Market Update – August 26, 2021

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact the energy solutions team at Mantis Innovation for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as the main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there is more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the long-term outlooks, we compare what the market was expecting to be each week (injection or withdrawal number) verse what actually took place, this will either push prices up or down respectively.

Final estimates for week ending 8/20/21 were for an injection in the 39 to 40 Bcf range.

The total net injection came in well below the final estimates with 29 Bcf being put into storage.

Storage is now 563 Bcf lower than last year, and 189 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-year historical range.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started closer to the 52-week low in August last year. From there, future prices recovered slowly for the rest of the summer and then rallied into the fall, up to a high point by the end of October. Next, 2022 future prices dropped off and continued falling, until establishing the new 52-week low at the end of last year. At the beginning of this year future prices started to recover slowly. However, since the start of April future prices have been climbing and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 1.9% from August 11th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 25.1%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in August last year. From there, Algonquin 2022 future prices continued to range below the average for the rest of summer until moving up a little for the fall, hitting a higher point at the end of October. Next, prices started a steady decline until prices fell even further in a short-lived price crash at the end of last year that established the new 52-week low. After establishing the new low, 2022 future prices recovered to range around the midpoint between the 52-week low and average for several months. However, since the start of April future prices have been rising and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 3.4% from August 11th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 40.3%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started near the 52-week low in August last year. From there 2022 future prices recovered thru the summer and then rallied further into the fall, hitting a higher point by the end of October. Future prices then dropped off at the start of November and kept falling until establishing the new 52-week low in December. However, since the start of the new year prices have been steadily increasing, and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently ISO-NE prices are down about 2.6% from August 18th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 34.7%.

The chart below shows the price movement of the Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started closer the 52-week low in August last year. From there, TETCO-M3 2022 future prices rallied off the lows and pushed up to the average, hitting a higher point by the end of October. Since then, future prices dropped off to range mostly below the 52-week average for several months, before dropping further to establish the new 52-week low at the start of April. However, since establishing the new low in April, future prices have been climbing, and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down about 2.4% from August 11th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 24.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started near the 52-week low in August last year. From there, future prices recovered a little thru the summer and into the fall, hitting a higher point by the end of October. Then there was a price crash in November that established the new 52-week low. Next, prices first recovered slowly to range mostly below the 52-week average for several months. However, since the start of April future prices have been climbing, and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently PJM prices are down about 1.8% from August 6th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 22.4%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to the date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2022 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Houston Ship Channel

Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 future prices started near the 52-week low in August last year. Then for the rest of summer prices recovered before rallying into the fall, hitting a higher point by the end of October. Next, HSC 2022 future prices dropped off to range mostly below the 52-week average until prices fell further at the end of last year to establish the new 52-week low. Future prices then started off the new year with a rally, before dropping off again to range a little lower for a few months. However, since the end of March future prices have been climbing, and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently HSC prices are down about 1.6% from August 11th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 27%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Houston Ship Channel Wholesale Calendar Year 2022 over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ERCOT Houston

ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 future prices started below the 52-week average in August last year. From there future prices continued to range closer the 52-week average until last November. Next, future prices crashed down to establish the new 52-week low at the end of last year. However, since the start of this year future prices have been climbing, and they have now rallied all the way up to just establish the new 52-week high, which prices are still close to now. Currently Houston prices are down about 4.2% from August 10th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by around 33.6%.

The chart below shows the price movement of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of ERCOT Houston Load Zone Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2022 over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Mantis Innovation does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.